King hubbert suggested his discovery of peak oil wouldnt lead to collapse, but instead would usher in the use of nuclear power. Hubberts presumption that the two rates are the same led him to presume in 1956 that worldwide oil production would be peaking about about 2008. Hubberts peak, the question of coal, and climate change. Hubbert is famous for peak oil, but in this paper he suggests a solution to the peak oil problem. The hubbert peak theory says that for any given geographical area, from an individual. Hubberts peak, he triumphantly says, i told you so. Because hubbert was correct about the peak of oil in the u. Many people thought hubberts predictions were vindicated when u. Hubbert s presumption that the two rates are the same led him to presume in 1956 that worldwide oil production would be peaking about about 2008. His prediction was based on mathematical analysis of the time histories of cumulative discoveries, production, and remaining reserves for a finite resource.
The acceptance of hubberts theory ensured the centrality of oil in almost all discourses about the future, and it even created a cultural movement of prophecy believers fixated on preparing for the oil end times. King hubbert and peak oil from a distance of 40 years. The great debate over the end of oil abstract this paper analyzes the major debates over future petroleum supply in the united states, in particular the longrunning feud between the worldfamous geologist, m. Lynch1 recently, numerous publications have appeared warning that oil production is near an unavoidable, geologicallydetermined peak that could have consequences up to and including war, starvation, economic recession, possibly even. The effect of peak oil on the world economy remains controversial.
King hubbert and the future of peak oil peak oil news. Hubberts peak or hubberts curve is a model that approximates the production rate of a resource over a period of time. After peak oil, according to the hubbert peak theory, the rate of oil production on earth would enter a terminal decline. Hubbert s math has four di erent expressions which we examine before showing they are mathematically equivalent.
King hubberts basic petroleum resource depletion model, the hubbert curve, that became the foundation for the variety of curve fitting techniques. King hubbert published a model for the growth and decline over time of the production rates of oil extracted from the land mass of the continental us. Hubbert s peak, the economy, and war for oil opednews. To make these discussions more concrete, i have written excel spreadsheets see bottom of page to download these that allow students to interact with the historical data for us. His life has now been chronicled by science writer. At a meeting of a branch of the american petroleum institute in 1956, hubbert presented a paper in which he depicted u. Predicting the timing of peak oil involves estimation of future production from existing oil fields as well as future discoveries. Hubbert s peak, he triumphantly says, i told you so. This curve shows daily production in nonopec nations. King hubbert published a model for the growth and decline over time of the production rates of oil extracted. Hubbert saw gas, coal and oil as natural resources, each of which would peak in production and eventually run out for a region, a country, or the world.
The hubbert peak theory says that for any given geographical area, from an individual oilproducing region to the planet as a whole, the rate of petroleum production tends to follow a bellshaped curve. Hubberts peak historical studies in the natural sciences. Specifically, hubbert s peak refers to the point at which this production rate is at its highest with demand for the resource rising, and after this it predicts a drop in correlation to the increased demand. Pdf a critique of hubberts model for peak oil researchgate. It was a reexamination of a model developed for the first time by marion king hubbert in 1956. Ken deffeyes looks at the potential replacement fuels. The idea of peak oil theory grew out of a 1956 paper published by marion king hubbert. That puts even more upward pressure on the price of oil. In march 1998, scientific american published a paper titled the end of cheap oil. The theory of peak oil and subsequently, of natural resource scarcity in general has consequently become associated with hubbert, and hubbert curves and models. The most influential production model is hubbert peak theory, first proposed in the 1950s. Resources and future production pdf 630kb, published on april 5, 2007 by the energy watch group. The view from hubberts peak, oil expert, geologist and professor ken deffeyes has updated his clsa u course, which addresses the earths supply of potential replacement fuels.
Peak oil is the point at which oil production, sometimes including unconventional oil sources, hits its maximum. Hubberts peak, the question of coal, and climate change dave rutledge chair, division of engineering and applied science caltech there is something fascinating about science. Development of hubberts peak oil theory and analysis of its. Thomas huber gustavus adolphus college in courses discussing energy, students frequently discuss peak oil and hubberts peak. Nuclear energy and the fossil fuels drilling and production practice pdf. In 2006, i reacted pdf to these prophecies by noting that the recent obsession with an imminent peak of oil extraction has all the marks of a catastrophist apocalyptic cult. He understands the nut n bolts of exploration, discovery and crude oil delivery systems. Hubbert found that anthracite matches a curve closely. Bartlett aa 2000 an analysis of us and world oil production. Since hubberts initial predictions in 1956, the proper application of ever more powerful statistical techniques has reduced much of the uncertainty about the supply of oil and natural gas. His 1956 paper calculated that world peak production of crude oil would occur in the year 2000, with a. Usa production which has passed its peak we can find the year that q reached that. He was a student of hubbert who first predicted a peak in production of oil. One gets such wholesale returns of conjecture out of such a trifling investment of fact.
King hubbert accurately predicted that a peak in oil production in the united states would occur in 1970 6, and this prediction brought a lot of. The theory of peak oil is based on the work of hubbert m. The future of oil and hubberts peak oil theory scitech connect. Development of hubberts peak oil theory and analysis of. When hubberts peak was validated in the mid1970s, he became a prophet.
Hubbertdeffeyes peak oil hdpo model predicts that world oil production is about to enter a sustained period of decline. Hubberts peak theory is the idea that as oil production follows a bellshaped curve, global oil production will peak and go into terminal decline. Specifically, hubberts peak refers to the point at which this production rate is at its highest with demand for the resource rising, and after this it predicts a drop in correlation to the increased demand. King, who successfully predicted peak oil production in the lower 48 states of the. Nonconventional oils viability is critiqued and found wanting. Why this topic is still relevant despite recent denials ian chapmann business school, university of cumbria, carlisle, united kingdom highlights key advocatesopponents of peak oil reveal their biases.
It is one of the primary theories on peak oil choosing a particular curve determines a point of maximum production based on discovery rates, production rates and cumulative production. I wanted to begin my new series of articles about the petroleum with a presentation of king hubbert and his searches, because any subject on the future of the petroleum, its price, its production, and about metals turns around problems that king hubbert splendidly developed there is half a century. However, for the range 150 hubberts peak, deffeyes explains the crisis that few now deny we are headed toward. Prediction and inference in the hubbertdeffeyes peak oil model. Note the peak was reached in approximately 1970, though the decline has taken longer than predicted by the hubbert curve. Hubbert s peak, the economy, and war for oil in marion king hubberts 1956 speech about peak oil, he asserted that global oil production would follow a bellshaped curve with a. As shown in the illustration, hubbert projected a u. Although observers believe that peak coal is significantly further out than peak oil, hubbert studied the specific example of anthracite in the us, a high grade coal, whose production peaked in the 1920s. Despite the fact that reserve estimates are a contentious issue, many using hubberts methods have come up with similar estimates. King hubbert made a bold prediction in 1956 that oil production in the u.
Hubbertsdatasetforusoilproduction,logisticgrowthcurvemodelshownfor qmax 350bb, r2 0. Peak oil theory memorial university of newfoundland. King hubbert fits the growth and decay of petroleum production using the. Debunking the hubbert model and hubbert modelers michael c. Similar to the predictions of the hubbert curve, the hubbert peak theory implies that maximum production from an oil reserve. Employing an estimate for the amount of ultimately recoverable oil and a logistic curve for the oil production rate, he accurately predicted a peak in us. Because of this prediction, hubbert is widelyregarded among peak oil adherents as a visionary. Hubberts math has four di erent expressions which we examine before showing they are mathematically equivalent. Hubbert s peak or hubbert s curve is a model that approximates the production rate of a resource over a period of time. The hubbert peak theory says that for any given geographical area, from an individual oil producing region to the planet as a whole, the rate of petroleum production tends to follow a bellshaped curve. Hubbert peak theory wikimili, the best wikipedia reader. Using geology and economics, he shows how everything from the rising price of groceries to the subprime mortgage crisis has been exacerbated by the shrinking supply and growing price of oil.